Book in categories:

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

Comments and mentions from HN threads:

Ask HN: Fun Tech Book Recommendations?

sunstone: How to reason about systems of messy data.... like the weather for example. Very well written and entertaining.

Ask HN: Best books you read in 2012

portman: Weaves together baseball, earthquakes, the weather, poker, and terrorism. Chapter 7 is the best description of Bayes theoreom I've ever read.

Mentions by: mjouni